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Analyst Suggests Ways Nigeria Can Achieve $1Trillion GDP By 2030

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A cross section of participants at the conference on Tuesday in Lagos.

By Sola Alabadan

The Managing Director/Chief Economist, Analysts Data Services & Resources Limited, Dr. Afolabi Olowookere, has advised the Federal Government to tinker with the current policies and speed up infrastructure development to encourage more investments, if it must realise the $1 trillion economy projection.
He suggested this while presenting the paper on Tuesday in Lagos at the 9th edition of Nigerian Association of Insurance and Pension Editors’ (NAIPE) Conference. The theme of the conference was “Towards A $1 trillion Economy, Roles of Insurance And Pension Sectors,”
The economist and financial analyst stated that the country’s Gross Domestic Product grew from 2.98 per cent in the first quarter of the year to 3.19 per cent in the second quarter, noting that the forecasts in the short to medium term remained weak.
He said inflation and other socio-economic manifestations, such as interest rates could constitute obstacles to achieving the projection.
According to him, “inflation rate rose from 21.82 per cent in January 2023 to 34.19 per cent in June 2024 and declined slightly to 33.40 per cent in July 2024 and further to 32.15 per cent in August 2024.
“Inflation reached 32.15 per cent (YoY) in August 2024, driven mainly by food price inflation and loose financial conditions.
“With continued monetary tightening, IMF projects inflation would gradually decline to 24 per cent (YoY) at the end of 2024 and further to 14 per cent by 2027.
“Hence, interest rate is expected to remain relatively high in response to inflation and economic instability.
“Naira has depreciated by 71.15 per cent between January 2023 and August 2024, rising from N461/US$l to NI,598.1/US$, now around NI,650/US$. Naira will likely continue to face gradual depreciation pressures due to trade imbalances and inflation,” he said.
He emphasised that managing the economy under the current economic setting would, at best, grow the economy to around $450 billion by the projected 2030 date.
Reflecting on the current GDP position, the financial analyst identified the leading contributors to Nigerian outputs to include Agriculture, ICT, Trade and Manufacturing.
Olowookere noted that the financial and insurance sectors account for 6.579 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP, but continue as the major driver of economic growth.
He said: “It has remained the fastest growing sector in recent time. The performance of Nigerian economy has been mixed in the last one year.
“The performance of the financial sector and fiscal space has been largely positive. But changes in the real sector of the economy have not been impressive.
On Nigerian insurance sector’s outlook and contribution to the GDP, Olowookere mentioned that the total assets in Nigeria’s insurance industry grew by 36.9 per cent in Q1 2024 from N2.4 trillion in Q1 2023 to N3.3 trillion.
“Non-life businesses accounted for N1.94 trillion while life businesses contributed N1.39 trillion. NAICOM sees the market as sound, stable, and profitable with a positive outlook.
“The insurance uptake remains stagnant and critically low as only 3.1 per cent of adults (3.4 million) were reportedly covered by a regulated insurance policy, according to EFInA 2023 report.
“The sector’s total value added in 2023 was N687.3 billion. Its contribution to GDP is less than 0.6 per cent. Its growth rate fluctuates over time, recording 13.3 per cent in Q2’24, far higher than 3.19 recorded for the entire economy.”
The financial analyst also hinted on the emerging trend in the sector with regard to digital transformation, adding that the adoption of digital technologies was revolutionising the way insurance products are marketed, sold, and serviced.
According to him, from online policy purchases to mobile claims processing, insurers are leveraging technology to enhance the customer experience and streamline operations.
“Insurtech companies are revolutionising the traditional insurance industry by introducing new products, streamlining processes, and reaching untapped market segments, enhancing efficiency and customer engagement. “Insurers are utilising data analytics to provide personalised products and services, enhancing customer experience and loyalty through improved communication channels like chatbots and social media engagement,” he added.
Earlier in his goodwill message, the Chairman of the occasion, and a former Commissioner for Insurance, Mr Fola Daniel, commended NAIPE for putting the programme together.
He said: “As we gather here today,
we stand at a pivotal moment in our industry, one that calls for reflection, innovation, and collaboration.
“Over the past decade, NAIPE has grown from a nascent idea into a formidable platform that champions a vital role in the insurance and pension sectors.
“Our mission has always been
clear: to enhance the quality of information disseminated to the public and to foster a deeper understanding of the complexities within our industries.
“Today, we are privileged to have with us diverse array of speakers, thought leaders, and industry experts who will share their insights on the evolving landscape of insurance and pensions.
“The themes we will explore in this
conference, are not just timely but essential as we navigate the challenges and opportunities.”
The conference attracted stakeholders in pension and insurance sectors, as well as retirees and university students.

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PenCom Bars Operators From Engaging Service Providers Not Complying With Pension Act

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By Sola Alabadan

The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has barred all Licensed Pension Fund Operators (LPFOs), comprising Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) and Pension Fund Custodians (PFCs) from transacting with service providers and vendors that do not remit pensions for their employees as evidenced by a Pension Clearance Certificate issued by the commission.
The pension operators have been given a grace period of six months to comply with this new directive aimed at expanding coverage of the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) in Nigeria,
Section 2 of the Pension Reform Act 2014 mandates all employers in the public and private sectors, including Federal, State, and Local Governments, to participate in the Contributory Pension Scheme and remit pension contributions no later than seven working days after salary payments.
However, PenCom lamented that in spite of the continuous engagement and enforcement measures, a significant number of employers remain non-compliant with this legal obligation.
This development made PenCom intensified its regulatory actions by appointing Recovery Agents to audit defaulters, recover outstanding contributions, and enforce sanctions.

To further strengthen enforcement, improve compliance, and broaden pension coverage, the commission directed all pension operators to ensure that any vendor or service provider they engage presents a valid Pension Clearance Certificate (PCC) issued by the Commission as a condition for entering into or renewing Service Level or Technical Agreements.

The pension operators are also mandated to ensure that investments are made only with companies and financial institutions that require PCCs from their own vendors and service providers.

Every Counterparty is required to execute a Compliance Attestation, confirming that it enforces the PCC requirement across its vendor network, and this attestation must be updated annually and included in the pension operator’s investment documentation.

Besides, counterparties are to submit valid PCCs from their own vendors/service providers before engaging in any investment transaction with the pension operators, including those involving commercial papers, bond issuances, and bank placements.

PenCom further directed the pension operators to integrate these requirements into their internal policies, vendor selection processes, due diligence procedures, governance, and investment risk assessment frameworks.

Based on the new directive, the Parent Companies, Subsidiaries, Holding Companies and Institutional Shareholders of pension operators are required to possess valid Pension Clearance Certificate and ensure that every vendor and service provider engaged by them complies with the requirement of the PCC as a precondition for entering into any Service Level or Technical Agreement. The requirement for compliance attestation is also applicable to the categories.

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Sanlam, Allianz Merger Expected In Nigeria

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Sanlam and Allianz have sparked speculation in Nigeria’s insurance industry following a wave of coordinated digital communication activities indicating an imminent completion of the expected merger of the operations in Africa’s largest economy.
The firms, which have already merged operations in 27 African countries, including Ghana and Rwanda, under the SanlamAllianz banner, are now widely believed to be ramping up their alliance in Nigeria as the next significant step in their partnership.
Recent posts on both companies’ digital platforms featuring their logos side-by-side and joint thematic messaging have drawn attention across financial and business circles. The coordinated activity mirrors pre-merger patterns observed in other African markets where their collaboration was subsequently formalised.
In 2022, Sanlam and Allianz announced the formation of a strategic joint venture covering 27 African markets. The move was intended to combine Sanlam’s local market depth with Allianz’s global scale and technical expertise, creating a formidable pan-African financial services entity with ambitions to lead in life and general insurance, asset management, and health insurance.
The partnership has taken concrete shape in countries like Ghana, where existing operations have been unified and rebranded under the SanlamAllianz name. The goal has been to offer more relevant, inclusive, and tech-forward financial solutions for individuals and businesses in these markets.
Nigeria is the continent’s most populous nation and its largest economy, yet despite recent progress, its insurance penetration remains under 1%. In 2023, the industry crossed the ₦1 trillion gross written premium mark for the first time, indicating untapped potential and growing consumer interest in financial protection.
Given these dynamics, analysts say Nigeria is a natural next step in the SanlamAllianz expansion journey. The presence of both logos in coordinated messaging has been read as a signal of intent. Both brands already operate in Nigeria, and a merger of local operations would represent a formidable alliance and substantial consolidation.
Market observers believe such a move could raise the bar in Nigeria’s insurance industry, fostering more robust competition, improved product design, and greater consumer trust in formal financial services. It would also align with both firms’ broader objective of promoting financial inclusion and building long-term resilience across African economies.
At a time when several global brands are reassessing their African strategies, Sanlam and Allianz’s continued commitment affirms their vote of confidence in Nigeria’s long-term prospects. This potential merger could not only reshape the insurance landscape but will also evidently become a significant catalyst and signal to the global investment community that Nigeria remains a viable and valuable market.

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Ghana’s Delegation In Nigeria To Marine Cargo Sector

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Commissioner for Insurance, Olusegun Omosehin received delegates from Ghana's Marine Cargo Technical Committee on a study tour of Nigeria's marine cargo sector at his office in Abuja recently. The delegation was led by Mr. Fred Asiedu-Darteh of Ghana Shippers' Authority.

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